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1. Although “goldilocks conditions” brought us here, the market is now looking ahead and expressing concerns about H2 2025.

After earnings blowouts from Microsoft and Meta, bulls expected to charge, but were once again met with sellers who pushed the major indexes lower.

Apple and Amazon earnings weren’t enough to get things going after hours, and the Fed’s September cut is in jeopardy after a hotter-than-expected inflation print.

Since the next upside market catalyst looks unclear, some investors and traders are using these excuses as a reason to take profits ahead of a seasonally weak Aug-Oct.

Time will tell if this is a temporary lull or the start of a deeper pullback. But for now, the bulls should continue to brace for short-term volatility as earnings progress.

Only 3 of 11 sectors closed green.

2. Market leadership dislocation between US and Europe.

3. Tariff-sensitive stocks have outperformed.

Deutsche Bank says that so far in the season 25% of companies in the Stoxx 600 have upgraded their guidance, while only 15% have downgraded. “This trend should continue now that firms have more clarity on tariffs and no longer have to build in a worst-case tariff scenario,” he said.

For Citigroup strategists, estimates for 1% profit growth in 2025 already reflect a 20% tariff rate. “A realized 15% tariff rate could therefore imply some upgrades to EPS growth forecasts going forward,” they said.

Other strategists are less optimistic. Although the new deal brings clarity, it’s “unlikely to meaningfully lift European equity earnings or valuations”.

4. Mapping the autonomous driving value chain.

By 2030, 1 in 4 cars sold globally will be equipped with smart driving.

China will continue to act as the proving ground and spearhead of smart driving adoption and will account for half of the global smart driving market in volume terms by 2030.

What will drive adoption? AI training, falling costs and regulation.

5. In the chipworld there is Nvidia and there is the rest.

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