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- Anthropic revives the AI chip trade.
Anthropic revives the AI chip trade.
Anthropic’s IPO is a leap of faith for Wall Street and the AI boom.
1. The South Korean discount is reaching extreme levels.
Below: 12 month forward P/E shows the Kospi at a forward P/E of 4 !!!

2. Anthropic’s IPO is a leap of faith for Wall Street and the AI boom.
"In the general sense of a business doing $16 or $32 billion annualized revenue, and losing $80 to $160 billion a year, a $1.5 trillion valuation seems rich. The offering is for the faithful and there is no margin for error.”
Below: Computing power is Anthropic's biggest expense.
The company has committed more than $500 billion in spending with six partners over a decade - one of the largest AI buildout commitments on record. Anthropic said many portions of its agreements are non-cancelable or require payments regardless of usage.

3. According to the WSJ, more oil is now coming out of the Gulf than before the Iran War.
"Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East oil flows, including shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes across the region, averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing prewar levels of 23.3 million, according to ship tracker Kpler".

4. Musk’s mishmash of businesses will be difficult for investors to evaluate.
A combination (SpaceX with Tesla) would bring under one roof Musk’s main business pursuits, streamlining the sprawling empire of the world’s richest person.
On the plus side, the resulting conglomerate’s massive size and diverse revenue streams could help drive down its cost of capital, making it easier for Musk to finance the multiplanetary sci-fi future he envisions.
But on the other hand, combining everything from satellites to social media, robotics, artificial intelligence, solar power and electric vehicles risks creating a confusing mess of a company with little uniting it besides Musk’s own imagination. A hefty “conglomerate discount” would be appropriate for investors trying to make sense of things.
Below: This would suggest that a merged company would likely be worth less than their combined current value of about $3.66 trillion.

5. Memory explained: think of a data center as a restaurant kitchen during the dinner rush.
“The GPU is the chef and every storage tier is a question of how far the ingredients sit from the chef.
Now the AI connection. Every dinner rush generates leftovers and records: raw ingredients delivered (training), photos of every dish at every stage (checkpoints), and order tickets (inference logs). The restaurant doesn't throw any of it away, because next season's menu is built on it. So, the hotter the kitchen runs, the faster the freezer warehouse fills.”
Source: Cantor

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