1. SK Hynix versus Samsung Electronics.

SK Hynix focuses primarily on memory chips, whereas Samsung Electronics also manufactures logic chips and consumer electronics such as smartphones and TVs.
"The emergence of customised AI memory fundamentally changed the industry's economics and allowed SK Hynix to establish itself as the market leader," said Kim Sunwoo, a senior analyst at Meritz Securities.

2. Memory chip capacity is at least two years away.

There is no lack of Chinese ambition or investment appetite, but the key is access to leading-edge equipment from ASML.
Any acceleration scenario assumes a meaningful relaxation of US export controls and is not a given, as we do not assume the EUV ban on exports to China is lifted.

3. Trouble in the IT outsourcing sector.

Companies are spending less on IT consulting and the market now believes AI is starting to do the work these companies used to charge billions for.

4. SpaceX mania.

The ARK Innovation ETF recorded ~$7 billion in inflows in June, the largest in nearly a year, with the surge coinciding precisely with the day of the SpaceX IPO.
The retail mania is unlike anything seen before.

5. Mechanical trading over fundamental valuation.

With the three largest passive S&P 500 funds now holding more than $2.6 trillion combined, prices are increasingly set by mechanical flows rather than by anyone judging what companies are actually worth.

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