1. JPMorgan is turning tactically “Neutral”.

The message is not outright bearish: economic growth and earnings remain resilient.
But the next two to three weeks could be volatile and directionless, with markets pricing a higher probability of a rate hike. Investor positioning offers no clear directional signal. JPMorgan’s conclusion: reduce net-long exposure and consider more market-neutral positioning. This is not a call for a bear market. It is a warning that strong fundamentals may not prevent a choppy September.

2. However, the longer term strategic view is still positive says JPMorgan.

September may have started on a gloomy note, with a bond selloff rattling markets, but strong macro and earnings are giving J.P. Morgan reasons to stay constructive into year end as the backdrop for risk assets remains favourable.
The bank points to three consecutive months of rising euro zone PMI readings and the latest U.S. ISM survey hitting a four-year high. Economic surprise indicators also remain robust.
"Weekly EPS revisions have moved outright positive in all regions," Matejka writes.
The strategist sees inflation expectations well anchored, citing subdued wage growth and mixed labour market signals.
"Central banks might deliver less tightening than is currently priced in."

Below: The Citi Economic Surprise Index

3. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield has hit 3% for the first time since 1996.

"A 10-year JGB yield at 3% is undoubtedly a milestone, but I would view it more as a normalisation story than a crisis story.
From a market perspective, higher Japanese government bond yields could encourage Japanese investors to sell foreign assets and repatriate funds, creating some downward pressure on overseas markets. At the same time, reduced Japanese demand for foreign debt may contribute to higher government bond yields in major markets such as the US and Europe, with potential implications for both fiscal and monetary policy."

4. Equal weighted outperforms capital weighted.

Even passive index-fund owners still have to decide what type of indexer they want to be. If they’re optimistic about the AI trade and the biggest hyperscalers, a traditional index fund (capital weighted) may fit best. But an equal-weighted version may be a better match if they’re feeling more cautious and prefer less exposure to a handful of tech giants such as Nvidia and Meta Platforms.

5. The development of humanoid robots is still in early innings but the opportunity is gigantic.

ARK's research (Cathie Wood) suggests that humanoid robots are ~200,000X more complex than autonomous vehicles. That complexity is likely to create a ~$26 trillion total addressable market, split roughly evenly between household and manufacturing applications, as shown below.

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