1. JPMorgan does not believe in rate hikes and Morgan Stanley sticks with a June rate cut!

“If the conflict continues, along with high energy prices, this would impact growth as well, potentially forcing central banks to look through higher inflation.
Markets are repricing expectations of central banks moves and this is likely unwarranted.”

2. The absence of heavy selling is remarkable.

Equity markets have retreated moderately since the Iran war started, with the S&P 500 down over 3%. The Stoxx 600 has been hit a little harder, but seems to have stabilized. Less than 20% of developed market stocks are technically oversold, a sign that profit taking has been narrow so far. There was even some limited dip buying last week.

“Positioning is still more bullish than bearish because consensus is the war won’t be long, private credit not systemic, and policymakers always ride to Wall Street rescue,” say Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett.

3. Momentum indicator (Relative Strength Index) has fallen but has not hit the “Oversold” threshold.

4. The International Energy Agency will coordinate to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency stockpiles.

When the barrels do eventually hit the physical oil market, they should bring prices down at least some. But the problem is that strategic reserves take longer to unlock than commercial stocks, especially if they are in specialized storage facilities.
So the initial announcement, intended to have a positive impact on sentiment in the markets, seems to have fallen flat. Brent was trading around $90 a barrel on the day of the IEA announcement and ended the week at around $103.

5. Nvidia owns the global computing bottleneck.

Nvidia's CEO sees one TRILLION ($1T) in cumulative purchase orders for the new Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2027, doubling a prior $500B forecast.
"Computing demand has increased by 1 million times in the last two years," Jensen Huang, CEO, said on the keynote stage.
Huang framed the demand surge around a fundamental shift in how AI is consumed. Dramatic increases in thinking and inferencing are called the "inference inflection" point of AI models that will act as agents and do “actual work.”
The shift in what we call the next big thing in AI has caused a global bottleneck in computing power.

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