Daily Newsletter - December 10, 2024

Daily newsletter for Financial Advisers by Financial Advisers.

1. All four major U.S. indices ended the day in the red for the first time in weeks.

Semiconductor stocks came under pressure after China opened an antitrust investigation into Nvidia.

Also, Bank of America downgraded AMD, citing increased competition and delayed AI offerings. AMD seems to be falling through 2 years of trendline support….

2. Consistently high readings on the Goldman Sach sentiment indicator imply that market participants may be overly optimistic and excessively confident in their bullish outlook.

3. Chinese stocks jumped on government pledge for more stimulus.

China vowed “more proactive” fiscal measures and “moderately” looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, as it braces for a second trade war with a Trump-led US.

4. Europe was overdue for a catch-up.

The market tide is turning fast, with investors brushing aside the drama in France over the budget and chasing the market rally into year end. France’s CAC 40 has now bounced 4% since a bottom on Nov. 27, despite the collapse of the government.

The Stoxx 600 just had a seven-day winning streak, its best since May, and the index’s strength is becoming increasingly broad across sectors.

“Economic conditions in the euro zone remain challenging, but the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates for the fourth time this year at its policy meeting,” says Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“With the ECB likely to continue easing at each meeting through June 2025, we see a supportive monetary policy backdrop for European stocks, which have reasonable valuations.”

5. It’s time to sell the US dollar, says Morgan Stanley.

“Elevated positioning and much of the good news for USD may be already in the price”.

Further, they believe markets are pricing too much cutting by central banks abroad and not enough cutting by the Fed.

6. Cars are good illustration of the tectonic shift in global manufacturing capacity.

It relates to most products.

China can produce them faster, cheaper and in many cases in better quality.

It will have massive consequences for countries like South Korea, Germany or Sweden.

7. There are currently more than 8,000 data centers globally.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that electricity consumption from data centers is expected to reach ~620-1,050TWh, depending on deployment speed, efficiency improvements and how penetration evolves around AI and cryptocurrencies.

To put the sheer scale of this increase into perspective, the expansion is comparable to adding the electricity demand for at least one Sweden or at most one Germany.

Charts of the day will not be published for a couple of days…we will be back asap!

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