Daily Newsletter - February 19, 2025

Daily newsletter for Financial Advisers by Financial Advisers.

1. Xi meeting Alibaba’s Jack Ma was positive and ‘symbolic’.

The meeting sparked optimism that crackdowns on the private sector are ending.

A gauge of major Hong Kong-listed technology stocks rose to the highest level in three years.

Alibaba was among the biggest boosts.

2. Goldman also raises MSCI China target.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect a blistering rally in Chinese equities to continue, as the emergence of DeepSeek sparks optimism over the country’s technological advancements.

“The AI boom sparked by DeepSeek is prompting global investors to reassess investment opportunities in China's tech and AI sectors, particularly the AI capabilities of previously undervalued Chinese internet companies.”

They see the MSCI China Index reaching 85 over the next 12 months, up from their previous target of 75.

3. Trump's tariff threat against China has lost its "bargaining power" as U.S.'s import from China only accounts for 15% of China's entire export.

4. The Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator measuring market and economic sentiment hit 73%.

As you can see, this is in line with the previous peaks that occurred before bear markets in 1999, 2007, and 2020.

The index uses US stock market valuations, government bonds yield curve, unemployment, inflation, and other economic metrics.

It simply means that the sentiment has rarely been this euphoric before.

Source: Global Markets Investor, GS

5. Buying European companies with announced buybacks, is a winning strategy.

MSCI Europe members have already unveiled €62 billion in repurchase plans so far in 2025, far exceeding last year’s €51 billion in the same period, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence tracker.

“Nearly 75% of buybacks programs set to end in 2025 are yet to be executed,” say Barclays strategists including Emmanuel Makonga. “But with the blackout period peaking now, buyback activity should pick up again.”

The buyback strategy has been a winner in Europe over the past six months, beating the Stoxx 600 handsomely.

6. Morgan Stanley has an overall sector preference for Telcos in their “European strategy Sector Model”.

This is their risk-reward overview for the telecom stocks.

Proximus seems to have an interesting risk-reward, without any downside at this price.

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