Daily Newsletter - February 7, 2025

Daily newsletter for Financial Advisers by Financial Advisers.

1. Another Mag7 bites the dust.

Amazon shares were down 4% after the bell because its revenue guidance fell short of the (high) consensus estimate.

With revenue growth a bit slower than expected, Amazon is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) and other growth areas to reaccelerate revenues, guiding to $104 billion in CapEx during 2025. For context, Alphabet guided for $75 billion, showing that the biggest tech companies will invest hundreds of billions annually in this space.

2. Let’s take another look at the PEG ratios.

Peter Lynch’s go-to metric: under 1.0 signals a bargain, over 2.0 looks pricey.

3. What about a comeback for European chemicals this year?

After three years of underperformance and last year’s -8%, JPMorgan strategists are taking a positive view.

The team double-upgraded the sector to overweight last week, saying destocking is largely done and predicting a rebound in volumes in coming quarters. That assessment adds to already attractive valuations. “In 2008-09, we saw a similar disconnect between global industrial production and chemical volume growth, which was followed by a pronounced recovery in chemicals volume,” they say.

JPMorgan isn’t the only bull in town. Chemicals got left behind in last year’s rally in growth-sensitive stocks, so even for cyclicals bears like Bank of America’s strategy team, “these stocks now look attractive, given the likely boost from a predicted decline in real bond yields.”

Among those who remain cautious, there are at least expectations that things won’t get any worse in 2025. Berenberg analysts led by Sebastian Bray say the sector needs lower European gas prices and more Chinese stimulus measures to achieve lift-off. Still, “there may be scope for a near-term re-rating if tariffs are not too onerous and China’s macro benign,” they say.

4. After more than a decade, only Tesla and Waymo (Alphabet) are still in the “robotaxi” race.

Actually, Waymo released its latest cumulative miles driven data across its portfolio of cities through the month of September reaching 33 million cumulative miles.

They will be in 7 US cities by the end of this year. Two cities will be launched exclusively through the UBER app, and as a result have access to UBER’s large installed base of users which will help drive strong frequency/utilization.

Tesla plans to launch in 2025.

Here are the estimates for the rollout of both companies in millions of autonomous driven miles.

5. The humanoid value chain.

About 45% of the companies are Chinese.

China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support.

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