1. Tariffs will effectively act as a tax hike, similar to high oil prices.

In his first term, tax cuts preceded the imposition of tariffs. That meant the economy already had solid momentum when the negative impact from trade disruptions hit.

This time around, the order is likely to be reversed.

The tariffs could also be much wider while the amount of new tax relief is smaller.

That seems like a recipe for an economic downturn. “Trump’s economic agenda is initially (mostly) negative for the economy, while ‘growth positive’ factors are back-end loaded to the end of 2025 and beyond,” Longview Economics wrote in a note.

Here is the impact of the “Trump tariffs” in 2016-2020 on manufacturing in the US.

2. Rate-cut expectations for 2025 went back up to 40bps from 28bps.

Traders are feeling more confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year, after a key inflation gauge came in cooler than expected last wednesday.

3. Will we see a short-covering rally in US bonds?

As you can see, short interest is near record highs, and the shorts are about to get squeezed.

At a running cost of 4.7%, staying short is a too expensive.

4. More than 1 billion people are living with obesity.

Kennedy or no Kennedy, the models forecast 25% CAGR in prescriptions, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly well placed for the foreseeable future.

5. Investing in AI as a theme is everywhere, but “Humanoids” as a sub-theme has the biggest upside according to Morgan Stanley.

6. Physical AI/ Humanoids have arrived.

7. Government spending as % of GDP. Et alors?

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