1. The Euro set is for its best week since November 2023 as price action is following bullish reversal of daily fear-greed indicator for the first time in more than a decade.

Technicals seem to indicate that the move could extend to 1.0630.

2. Shares of US companies roared to a record last week, seemingly shrugging off worries about tariffs, immigration and inflation.

Yet, company executives are doing something decidedly less bullish: selling their stocks at a rapid pace.
Apart from a natural seasonality in the pattern of insider sales, this time they were were concentrated in the large technology companies that saw huge gains in 2023 and 2024, says Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.

“Following a tremendous two-year run in equities, it is natural to see a surge in selling,” Hackett said.

Still, the high level of company insiders selling shares can be reason for concern given they do have a track record of providing an early read on market direction over the years.

The insider buy-sell ratio had jumped in August 2015 and late 2018, with the former preceding a market bottom and the latter coinciding with another one. In March 2020, corporate insiders’ purchases correctly signaled the bottom of a bear-market rout.

3. Morgan Stanley makes (again) a contrarian call.

Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee has repeatedly urged investors to seek maximum portfolio diversification in 2025, suggesting it could deliver better risk-adjusted returns than a “buy-and-hold” strategy.

Still, it’s important to note that despite their caution, they’re not calling for a decline in U.S. stocks. Their year-end price S&P 500 price target of 6,500 implies roughly 8% growth, but they clearly believe the path to that return may be bumpy and that other assets could provide a better nominal or risk-adjusted return.

Its recommendations for diversifying alluded to a variety of options, including foreign equity positions in Japan, emerging markets, and global European brands.

One of their preferred makets is India, which is showing a cyclical recovery taking hold. “Stronger fiscal spending with easing liquidity conditions should help drive an earnings reacceleration of 20% annually over the next 4 to 5 years.”

This graphic shows projected real GDP growth over the next decade, based on Ray Dalio's Great Powers Index 2024 report.

4. Chinese internet and tech stocks are starting to break out of their recent range.

Could the Chinese market be setting up to lead in 2025? Here is Alibaba.

5. Google parent Alphabet Inc. may be sitting on a massively undervalued asset: its artificial-intelligence semiconductor business, according to Barron’s.

Alphabet also has an AI business, DeepMind, that’s comparable to OpenAI, the magazine writes.

Both businesses may be worth hundreds of billions of dollars and aren’t fully reflected in Alphabet’s stock price, Barron’s says.

The potential stand-alone value of the Tensor processing units chip business combined with DeepMind may exceed $700 billion, wrote D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria.

Analysts and investors are discussing Alphabet’s “sum-of-the-parts” value amid antitrust concerns, which may lead to a breakup that would unlock value for shareholders.

6. LVMH is still the best in class.

• Acquire brands with rich histories and timeless appeal.

• Preserve their identity and creative independence.

• Expand globally while ensuring exclusivity.

“While LVMH should face a number of challenges in 2025, the Group's prospects have materially improved in recent weeks, a function of more favorable industry dynamics but also company-specific factors (improving prospects at key brands Vuitton/Tiffany/Bulgari).

Regarding Dior, LVMH's 'problem child' in 2024, the brand should benefit from the appointment of creative director Jonathan Anderson. Trading on a 24.8x forward PE, it now trades at a discount to Richemont (while the discount to Hermès is near all-time highs).”

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