Daily Newsletter - November 20, 2024

Daily newsletter for Financial Advisers by Financial Advisers.

1. Markets Brace For “Nvidia Day”, as anticipation builds for Nvidia’s much-awaited earnings report today after the bell.

Nvidia needs another strong quarter of EPS growth tomorrow to keep the dream alive.

Analysts expect Q3 EPS of $0.74 (+85% increase Y/Y).

But the market’s core concern is maybe less about Nvidia and more about the broader semiconductor sector.

Below is a chart of the popular semiconductor ETF breaking below its trendline and 200-day moving average earlier this week, raising the caution flag for the first time in several years.

Still, the bulls are hoping that a blowout quarter from Nvidia could help resolve this small breakdown and get the whole sector back on track.

2. Hyperscalers to continue to invest 300 billion USD and growing 30% each year.

The gold rush at its peak and Nvidia selling the shovels?

3. Daily usage of ChatGPT/Gemini is now at ~11% of US respondents.

User adoption (in year 2) has roughly the same penetration rate as Facebook ~2.5 years after it was broadly released.

4. Europe’s “lost decade” is over, according to DWS Asset Management, one of Europe’s biggest asset managers.

“Valuations are already far lower than the US, as is investor positioning, while the negative impact from tariffs may be largely priced in.”

“Also, the weaker euro may turn into a tailwind.”

Despite negative headlines, Europe’s economic surprise indicators, have already turned positive, according to DWS.

And while the European Central Bank is now priced to cut interest rates five times by mid-2025, the inflationary fallout of Trump’s policies could limit the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting campaign.

5. Corporate Insiders in the US are dumping stock shares at the fastest pace in more than 2 decades.

6. Oaktree is looking for bargains in China even as other investors shun the world’s second-biggest economy.

“Some assets in China are available at bargain prices.”

“Chinese authorities are trying to calibrate the right stimulus.”

Oaktree Capital Management, Inc. is an American global asset management firm specializing in alternative investment strategies. As of September 30, 2024, the company managed $205 billion for its clientele.

7. United States is currently spending 17.9% of its revenue on interest payments, the largest share in more than 30 years.

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