Subscribe to receive these charts every morning!

1. Death cross for the S&P and the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 formed a ‘death cross’ after their 50-day MAs moved below their 200-day MAs for the first time since 2022. The last time this happened, the market fell 11% before the 50 broke back above the 200, almost a year later.

2. US Equity intentions.

A Bank of America fund manager survey struck a cautious tone, showing that a record number of global investors plan to cut their holdings of US equities. Among the respondents, 73% said that US exceptionalism has peaked.

3. Not all luxury animals are created equal.

LVMH was overtaken by Hermes as the world’s most valuable luxury company as LVMH sales were down 3% in the first quarter.

Trump’s tariff announcements have eliminated any hopes that American shoppers would spend more on luxury this year.

The different returns since 3 years are remarkable.

4. UK Large caps are cheap.

Moreover, they tend to do well when investors are looking for shelter from global economic upheaval. That’s prompting equity strategy teams from Citi to Barclays to turn overweight on the market.

“We upgrade the UK to overweight mainly on cheap valuations, while its defensive nature could help if volatility persists,” say Citi strategists led by Beata Manthey. They see the drivers of US stock exceptionalism fading, both from a GDP and an EPS perspective, as the trade war rages on. “Tariffs, as they stand, could negatively impact US EPS the most.”

After a small re-rating in the past few months, UK valuations are back near the bottom of a long-term historical range. The FTSE 100 trades at 11 times forward earnings, a discount of 45% to the S&P 500 and 15% to the Euro Stoxx 50.

5. The U.S. is heavily reliant on rare earth imports from China, which accounted for 70 percent of U.S. rare earth imports between 2020 and 2023.

As part of the retaliation against Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, China has imposed new export controls on seven additional rare earth elements, temporarily suspending any exports of the valuable minerals. The newly affected elements, namely samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium, are critical components of a wide range of products, ranging from electric cars and semiconductors to military equipment such as missiles and drones.

Not a subscriber yet?