1. The International Energy Agency sees significant 2027 oil surplus after Hormuz recovery.

In its first look at 2027, the IEA said the oil market will enter a significant supply overhang, with global supply set to surge by 8 million barrels per day and demand rising by just 2 million bpd.
In the near term, the agency said the Iran-U.S. deal should provide an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or build new strategic reserves.
"Markets may be underpricing the depth of the supply glut coming online," said Crispus Nyaga, research analyst at Empire FX.

2. European data centers growth lags the US, but the best is yet to come.

Below: Total current data center capacity.

3. European data center growth - Base / Bull / Bear Case forecasts by Morgan Stanley.

A bottom-up (project-by-project) analysis suggests that the European DC market could increase >10x, if the vast majority of previously announced Europe-wide projects are fully constructed.
It will cost €1.5tn to build these European DCs.

4. Signs of a top when house cleaners and celebrities start talking about chips.

The Wall Street Journal asked its readers if they had some anecdotal evidence about an imminent top.
One reader said that his longtime housecleaner, who has never mentioned investing, recommended two chip-making stocks to him this month.
Financial adviser Jeffrey Weinstein has a rich, “extremely conservative” client who only owns municipal bonds. He just asked Weinstein to buy him some SpaceX stock.

Here is the semiconductor index year-to-date.

5. Luxury handbags in trouble.

Sales of luxury bags are down almost 10% from peaks seen in 2023, data from Bain & Company shows, equivalent to a roughly $8 billion hole in annual spending.
Data from the resale market and social-media listening tools shows that shoppers are still obsessed with luxury handbags, but their tastes are evolving in ways that are unhelpful for luxury companies’ profits.
Demand has shifted away from designer stores to the secondhand market.
The shift isn’t only about price. Resale trends suggest that carrying a vintage luxury bag is becoming cooler than buying new.
Consumers perceive older bags to be better quality, and buying vintage is a way to look different in an era of algorithm-driven fashion trends. Buying vintage also requires knowledge of fashion history, which is emerging as a new status symbol itself.

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