1. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds climbed to 5.5%.

Global bond yields jumped after business activity data pointed to strong U.S. growth and rising inflation pressures, stoking Federal Reserve rate-hike bets.
The U.S. already boasts some of the highest yields among the Group of Seven richest nations.
"Treasuries are competing with the rest of the market to be purchased and so you know the question is how much higher could it go?

2. French drama.

"Any market observer would say that we have seen this drama before and several times over, no less. Every single time, the scare has proven to be a buying opportunity. Risk premia around French elections build up only to deflate," the strategists say.
Meanwhile, France’s government said its draft 2027 budget bill will meet the EU’s spending recommendations as it seeks to reassure financial markets after missing this year’s deficit target.
Last but not least, the French composite PMI (purchasing manager index) accelerated unexpectedly to 51.2 against a forecast of 48.7.

Below: French stocks are in oversold territory.

3. The oil problem is smaller than the headlines suggest.

The physical shortage is already shrinking.
Goldman estimates that the global oil deficit has narrowed from roughly 7million barrels per day near the start of the war in March to approximately 1mb/d in Q3. Gulf production has partially recovered, demand has weakened and supply outside the region has risen faster than expected.

4. AI euphoria.

Investors have added $22 billion into technology-focused US exchange-traded funds this quarter, compared with only $4.6 billion into the rest of the market.
“Circular financing among the leading AI players depends critically on expectations of continuously accelerating revenue growth, so that that even the slightest slowdown risks undermining the whole edifice. Prudent investors should be preparing not for a rerun of the short-lived 2022 bear market but something far more dramatic”, says Bernstein, global head of macro at the investment firm Janus Henderson.

5. “We see no slowdown in memory demand at least until 28”.

JPMorgan sees 60-130% upside over 18 months for Samsung en Hynix.

“Beyond 2H28E, we expect memory content growth for broad-based AI computation systems to be slower vs. the early-mid stages of adoption. Yet, supply constraint factors and continued system unit build increase will support the tight environment where potential price erosion will be minimal. This will support stable FCF generation for multiple years as the industry works on building inventory for multiple years. Potentially, lower memory price points and more affordable AI services will spur the takeoff of new edge AI demand.”

Below: Scenario analysis for Samsung Electronics stock price.
The stock is currently trading at the extreme “bear” scenario. Yellow is their base case and blue is the bull case.

There well be no charts of the day next week…