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1. It was a down day but not for the “semis” and Nvidia that climbed to a new record high.

Meanwhile, the interest rate cut discussion grew after Morgan Stanley analysts said the Fed will cut rates seven times in 2026. That’s way more than the Fed’s estimated once.

Fed president Jerome Powell spoke in front of Congress and warned that tariffs could drive inflation higher and said the Fed won’t cut rates until it sees how price pressures play out.

Trump called Jerome Powell “terrible” and said he has narrowed down three or four candidates to replace him as Fed Chair, intensifying pressure for immediate rate cuts.

With that, only 2 of 11 sectors closed green with tech leading and real estate lagging.

2. “Shifting back to a tactically bullish view.”

As geopolitical tensions fade, under-exposed equity investors could be forced to start chasing equity markets higher again.

The market is refocusing on the macro picture, preparing for earnings, and watching the looming deadline on the expiration of the tariff moratorium,” say JPMorgan Market Intelligence strategists led by Andrew Tyler, who are shifting back to a tactically bullish view.

Alongside resilient macro data, positive EPS growth, and less belligerent rhetoric on trade, Tyler notes that “an additional tail-wind comes from dovish Fedspeak and lower energy prices.”

What’s interesting though, is that while markets are around record highs, sentiment remains depressed. Stock positioning is in its 20th percentile, and in the middle of the bottom half of its usual band, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. That under-exposure, especially from discretionary investors, hints that the rally since April has been pretty narrow in scope.

So, what happens once this cohort becomes bullish?

3. Macroeconomic momentum supports European stocks.

Europe is delivering a steady stream of positive economic surprises, a contrast with the picture in the US. The European Central Bank has already cut rates eight times and could do so once more this year, while German spending may soon start to buoy the economy.

Preliminary PMIs are holding up, while the German business outlook has hit a two-year high. Continued improvement in soft data will offer a tailwind to growth-sensitive cyclical stocks.

The question then is what could derail the current momentum? Goldman Sachs’ Peter Callahan doesn’t see many reasons. “Candidly, hard to find a fundamental concern at the moment,” he says.

4. Beyond ChatGPT.

OpenAI isn’t slowing down. It’s monetizing, diversifying, and fighting fires—all at once. Shifting from ChatGPT subscriptions to APIs, agents, and new products, OpenAI is projecting $125 billion in revenue by 2029. While ChatGPT makes up the vast majority of revenue, OpenAI is racing to prove it’s more than a one-product wonder.

So, where will the money come from?

• ChatGPT: Premium subscriptions and enterprise licenses remain the foundation.

• API access: Licensing models to developers and enterprises continues to grow, powering tools like Notion, Khan Academy, and Stripe.

• Agents: Automated, task-based AI agents that go beyond chat—booking flights, handling customer service, or even writing code.

• New products: Think memory, app stores, voice interfaces, and monetizing free-tier users via ads.

Guess what…Microsoft, understandably, isn’t thrilled.

Microsoft poured over $13 billion into OpenAI, secured exclusive Azure access, and integrated OpenAI’s models across Bing, Microsoft 365, and GitHub Copilot. But now? It feels like a divorce battle. According to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI wants to loosen Microsoft’s grip on its AI products and computing resources.

5. And the winner is?

Here is the year-to-date ranking of the country ETF’s.

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