1. Oil was sharply up and then down after Trump signals Iran war may end soon.

But the energy price shock is rippling through all other assets, with bonds tumbling on fears of stagflation and traders reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts. The dollar is continuing to get a haven bid, pressuring metals.
Record buying by retail investors in the United States Oil Fund ETF suggests bullish oil bets may be the next “meme theme.”
Morgan Stanley is staying positive on US stocks over a 6-12 month period as the outlook for US stocks still looks decent due to earnings growth re-acceleration and continued broadening.
Below: Hormouz, no LNG or LPG tankers observed yesterday, vs ~35 per day normally.

2. What was Buffett saying again? Be greedy when others are fearful.

3. Investors should be prepared to step in after the initial bout of de-risking, according to JPMorgan strategists.

“Equity markets typically bottom when sentiment is most negative, with historical precedent suggesting lows tend to form within five to 10 trading days of peak fear, followed by sharp recoveries, and would consider adding to industrials, semis, discretionary, EM and euro zone exposures if that materializes”.
Political calendars and military asymmetry suggest hostilities are not likely to last for an extended period.

Below: Stoxx600 is now negative for the year.

4. EssilorLuxottica is seriously oversold.

EssilorLuxottica reported solid FY25 results with a particularly impressive delivery on the top line, accelerating to +18%.
The company provided a long-term outlook, expecting over the next five years “solid growth”.
Management framed AI-glasses as a digital computing platform that could eventually replace smartphones as the primary personal interface (=consistent w/ META's comments). Crucially, wearables are being integrated into a broader MedTech ecosystem, combining vision correction, sensors, AI, and data-driven capabilities to support health monitoring and diagnostics, underpinning the group’s transformation from a traditional optical player into a medtech and data-driven company.

This might be a good time to get in.

5. The Buffett effect?

It’s a new era.
Abel won’t be able to duplicate Buffett’s 6 million percent return as boss, and not just because of his age.
Berkshire is enormous now, so growth will be more “pedestrian”.  
And only a few, if any, companies are big, good and cheap enough to buy outright.

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