- Charts of the Day
- Posts
- Rising Treasury yields turn into broad risk-off session.
Rising Treasury yields turn into broad risk-off session.
The bond market is increasingly becoming the key macro risk.
1. The US Treasury crisis.
The overall debt outstanding is now $40 trillion or 125% of GDP.
The annual budget deficit is close to 6% of GDP, and has been 5.5% or above for six straight years. There's no sign of a deficit-reduction plan of any sort in the works.
Investors are demanding the highest 10-year "term premium" in 12 years — the compensation for uncertainty and risk in holding Treasury debt to maturity.
The US Treasury is praying for the Fed to eventually cut rates to cheapen debt-servicing costs. Foreign Treasury holders are already checking out with a lower dollar as a consequence.

2. “Europe will still see exceptionally strong DC capacity growth”, part 2.
Morgan Stanley has identified 10 subsectors to gain exposure to the European data center theme.

3. Nokia is seeing huge optical and network orders.
“The market consensus has been too slow to react to the company’s revenue potential in AI and Cloud based on the order intake and indications on the strength in the market indicated by optical peers.
The stock’s exposure to AI networking has fundamentally changed the growth outlook and earnings potential, thereby justifying a higher multiple/price.”
Below: The stock is breaking out to the upside.

4. Hedge funds versus the market.
The Global X Guru ETF (GURU), designed to track top hedge fund holdings, has underperformed the S&P 500 since its inception in 2012. And that comparison still leaves out the classic hedge fund fee drag.
And those fees matter. The classic “2 and 20” model (2% of assets + 20% of gains) can significantly reduce returns. It's no wonder that many individual investors are opting for simpler, lower-cost strategies.

5. The Jevons paradox.
The Jevons Paradox is an economic rule. It states that when a tool or machine makes a resource easier or cheaper to use, total use of that resource goes up, not down. People use more of it because the cost is lower.
The Jevons Paradox in AI is real: token prices have declined but compute rental costs have remained elevated, suggesting that there is a huge increase in demand for inference as token prices decline.

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