1. Downward revisions typically lag energy shocks by 2–3 quarters.

J.P. Morgan economists expect both global and EM growth momentum to slow towards a trend-like pace in the next three quarters as higher energy costs and weaker demand weigh on exports.

Below: The probability of a US recession in 2026 has jumped.

2. US labor details continue to be weak.

In particular, the hiring rate fell from 3.4% to a new cycle low of 3.1%.

3. Supply-chain disruptions from the war are providing a short-term boost for the chemical sector.

The chemical sector is one of only five to show gains in the first quarter, with the Stoxx 600 Chemicals index up about 6% compared to a decline of 1.5% for the broader benchmark. Why?
Disruption to raw material supplies would push up costs more in Asia than in Europe, and commodity chemical companies such as BASF, Arkema and Evonik should benefit the most in the second and third quarters, according to Morgan Stanley. Higher prices for naphtha — a crude oil derivative – were squeezing Asian chemicals, and could cut exports to Europe. “Even if imports into European end-markets do not abate, we would expect them to be priced out of the market, allowing European names to reclaim lost volumes,” they add.
However, even if companies can successfully cancel long-term contracts and sell spot, it’s only a matter of time before steeper prices bite back.
“The price goes up and the more it goes up, the less demand you have”.

4. Don’t react to headline drama!

Crazy days are usually meaningless bumps in the road for markets. If investors could all act like the coma patient they’d be better off.
Remember last year’s “Liberation Day” and its aftermath made for one of the wildest months ever. Stocks came within a whisker of a new bear market, Treasury yields spiked and the VIX “fear gauge” reached a level not seen since the Covid-19 panic.
The lesson from chaotic times is to stay calm.

Below: Last year’s tariff crisis.

5. Stay constructive on Gold, says JPMorgan.

“Gold was caught in a broad “sell everything” derisking trade at the onset of the conflict, falling ~11% as market-wide liquidity needs took precedence over safe-haven flows. Looking ahead, we expect downside to be capped by structural institutional demand, with central banks projected to remain net buyers of ~800t in 2026. We also anticipate a pivot back to gold as a primary diversifier once the “inflation-hedge” narrative supersedes liquidity concerns and the Fed addresses stagflationary risks.”

Happy Easter egg hunting !