1. CAPEX spending may be out of control but the tech sector jumped 4% on dip-buying.

Software had its first green day in 8 sessions and seems to have notched a bottom after falling 5% on Thursday.
As the market bounced, chip leaders also climbed by the realization that Amazon's spending "shock" represents direct revenue for the silicon providers.

2. Q4 Earnings season tracker.

We are in the busiest weeks of the Q4 reporting season, with nearly half of companies in the US having reported, and nearly a third in Europe. Earnings growth is coming in stronger than initially expected, at +15% y/y in the US, and +5% y/y in Europe.
Of the Stoxx600 companies that have reported so far, 64% beat EPS estimates. Q4 EPS growth is at +5% y/y, which is a positive surprise of 4%.

3. The gap between the AI enablers and potential casualties of AI.

The correction in software stocks has widened the gap between AI "picks 'n shovels" - hardware makers powering the AI data centre build-out - and firms further down the supply chain.

4. The MAG7 are also diverging.

The once-unified Magnificent 7 group of most valuable U.S. stocks is also diverging, as investors move from rewarding big capex announcements to scrutinising the return on that spending.
Portfolio managers at Goldman Sachs Asset Management flagged in January that diverging AI and cloud strategies were breaking apart the Magnificent 7 narrative.
"You need to see a clear cause and effect. If they're spending the money, are they getting a return for it?

The market is no longer tolerating spending for spending's sake."

5. The market is too negative on Adyen.

Total payment volume from major US networks (Mastercard, Visa, American Express) indicates payment volume growth of 10% in 2H25, at a higher rate from ‘24 (7.9%). This sets up a positive environment for Adyen to grow combined with Adyen’s share gain of the network volume.
Adyen is to report results on February 12th.

It’s seriously oversold and could bounce violently. We like the risk/reward at these levels.

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