1. Next wave of AI mega deals rattles debt market.

Credit markets are again becoming jittery over the prospects of more mega debt deals to pay for the AI arms race. The latest, a potential $40 billion debt raise to help SpaceX buy chips from Nvidia, sent the cost of credit insurance on Elon Musk’s company to a record high on Wednesday.
The SpaceX reports followed the launch of a $60 billion Broadcom-backed chip financing that a group of banks and Blackstone are pitching to lenders to benefit Anthropic, Bloomberg News reported last week. And the Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday on the possibility of another Broadcom-linked deal financing chips for OpenAI.

2. Breadth and concentration.

Despite the new 52-week high in the S&P 500, more than 75% of stocks are down more than 10% and over 37% are down 20% or more. That’s the “breadth” problem.
One of the main reasons the breadth indicator points to weakness, is because the concentration in the index is like nothing we've ever experienced. The market cap of the bottom 434 stocks in the S&P equals the market cap of the top 5 stocks.

3. US versus France part 1.

France and the US have the same problem: federal borrowing is unsustainable but US stocks shrug off the higher bond yields as a glass-half-full event.
For many Americans it’s an article of faith that the stock market eventually rises over time and that Uncle Sam’s liabilities are risk-free.
Or U.S. investors and consumers are just less-fearful than those in other developed countries.

4. US versus France part 2.

U.S. stocks fetch twice the valuation of French stocks, so US stocks could fall further in case of a recession.
But then again, we haven’t seen a recession in almost 20 years.

5. Germany doubles 2026 outlook as manufacturing gets stronger.

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