1. The canary in the AI coal mine has stopped singing.

Most of Oracle’s growth over the next few years depends on OpenAI. The ChatGPT owner still accounts for the majority of Oracle’s $523 billion in remaining performance obligations, which refers to contracted revenue not yet recognized. And that revenue backlog is nearly nine times the size of Oracle’s current annual revenue, a far greater ratio than at competing cloud providers.

Investors currently don't have confidence that "the counterparties underpinning Oracle's robust backlog will prove durable," or if renting out graphics processing units can boost earnings and free cash flow”. As a result, concerns are rippling across the entire AI supply chain and hitting other prominent infrastructure companies.

2. Morgan Stanley sees the Euro at 1.30 if ECB holds rates and the Fed continues to ease.

The USD has been going sideways for the last 6 months. That might change.

3. Seasonal trends bode well for a year-end rally.

A rally in European stocks has paused after the benchmark hit a record last month, as investors worry about a potential US tech bubble. Still, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut on Wednesday and signals on the outlook for monetary policy calmed jitters around the health of the US economy.

“The Fed’s message and the tech reaction actually give a green light for a broadening of the equity opportunity,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Investors don’t need to stay confined to the narrow mega-cap leadership anymore. Regions like Europe start to look appealing within that broader mix.”

4. A basket of European clean-energy stocks has soared more than 40% this year.

The outperformance has surprised investors who entered 2025 having dumped solar and wind producers on fears that Trump would scrap green policies and ramp-up fossil-fuel production.

While the Trump administration has indeed taken steps to overhaul US policy, others such as Germany and China have committed billions in spending on infrastructure for the energy transition. Not only has renewables become the preferred choice to power data centers in Europe, but lower interest rates have also brightened the outlook for these typically debt-heavy stocks.

Also, the rally hasn’t made the sector look expensive, as earnings expectations have surged alongside share prices. This year, forward earnings estimates for European renewables have jumped 32%. European renewables are “positioned for multi-year upside, driven by disciplined capital expenditure, over €2 trillion grid and clean-power investment, and rising power demand and volatility,” say UBS strategists led by Gerry Fowler.

5. Novo Nordisk is trading as if obesity drugs didn’t exist.

We should remind investors that Novo’s pipeline does contain competitive assets for both the Type 2 diabetes and obesity spaces. With a forward P/E of 13, the risk/reward looks attractive at this level.

Maybe it’s another case of US home bias with American investors chasing Eli Lilly at a P/E of 31.

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