The end of the "Trump trade"

The U.S. stock market indexes remain under pressure.

1. Another rough day for stock market bulls, despite Nvidia’s stellar results.

The U.S. stock market indexes remain under pressure for several reasons, including tariff uncertainty, inflation resurgence concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a lack of a catalyst for the tech sector.

On top of that, since everybody was already super bullish about Nvidia, it’s harder to find new buyers into the dip.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 ETF breaking below its uptrend line from its November 2023 lows, with momentum nearly reaching oversold territory.

Traders have their eyes on a prior breakout area and 200-day moving average near 565-560 as the next major level of support.

2. Active managers are back in business.

The last couple of years, active fund managers have struggled to beat the index.

In large part, that’s because their positions in the massive tech names driving markets higher were lower than the stocks’ hefty weightings in an index such as the MSCI World.

This year, however, that under-allocation is turning out to be a blessing.

With the so-called Magnificent Seven faltering, stock pickers are seeing a performance boost: Roughly 49% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare themselves to the S&P 500 are beating the index in 2025, according to Morningstar Direct. That’s up from 38% during the same time last year.

“With the ‘Mag 7’ turning into the ‘Lag 7’ this year, that’s giving oxygen back to active managers who are breathing a sigh of relief because traders are rotating into beaten-up value shares and other unloved corners of the market,” said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

3. Cash allocation of US equity funds has declined to just ~1.5%, the lowest on RECORD.

The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is still extremely high.

4. The defense push is forcing EU officials to design a new industrial strategy.

European military contractors only supplied 22% of the bloc’s defense needs between mid-2022 and mid-2023, compared with a target of 50% for 2030.

5. Uranium is bottoming out and is ready for a bounce.

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