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1. Stocks regained their post-“Liberation Day” losses last week but forward guidance remains unclear.

It was a ripping week for the market, and software tech earnings paved the way for an extended S&P 500 winning streak.

News from the White House and abroad says trade talks may start soon between the U.S., Europe, Canada, and China.

The FOMC is meeting this week and deciding rates on Wednesday.

If April taught us anything, it’s that one tweet can change everything.

Here is the year-to-date heatmap.

2. Mark Mobius says his funds now hold 95% in cash amid uncertainty.

“At this stage, cash is king. So 95% of my money in the funds are in cash,” Mobius said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “Right now, we’ve got to keep the cash and be ready to move when the time is right.”

Mobius, who has been investing in developing markets for about three decades, said some emerging market countries such as India will do quite well in the current environment, “but we have to wait until all of this evens out and we see a settling down of this uncertainty.”

3. Hedge fund positioning.

Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.

4. The “broadening" of GLP-1 use.

Morgan Stanley believes that near-term friction in the US observed via volume underperformance in 2H24 will resolve over time, as the system adapts to meet the significant demand for GLP-1's and the market continues to move to the medical management of obesity-related diseases and away from solely weight loss.

The opportunity for GLP-1's is related to the meaningful clinical benefit they have demonstrated, in a large market with significant unmet need.

GLP-1 adoption within the eligible obesity population sits at 2-3% in the US and ~1% outside US , vs. our peak estimates of ~20% and 10% penetration, respectively.

“We anticipate the focus on Asia's obesity market will grow, particularly in China and Japan, where penetration is low.”

5. Novo Nordisk versus Eli Lilly.

Novo Nordisk sparked the obesity drug revolution with Ozempic and Wegovy. Now it’s racing to avoid falling further behind Eli Lilly.

Last week, Novo announced new partnerships with telehealth providers Hims & Hers Health and LifeMD to sell its weight-loss drug Wegovy through their platforms. Hims & Hers, for instance, will dispense all doses of Wegovy to Americans who sign up for eligible subscriptions, with plans starting at $599 a month.

The move accomplishes two important things for Novo Nordisk. First, it expands Wegovy’s reach among U.S. patients, especially cash-paying customers willing to access the drug outside traditional insurance channels. Second, it could reduce competition from compounded versions of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, which until recently were offered by Hims & Hers itself.

Telehealth partnerships might help at the margins, but patients and doctors are increasingly shifting toward Zepbound because of its higher efficacy. Zepbound also has a steadier supply chain, and Lilly was faster to roll out retail and telehealth partnerships.

However, being second in what might become the largest drug category in history is hardly a failure.

Source: WSJ

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