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1. Are you not entertained?

The far-reaching tariffs policy announced by President Donald Trump risks derailing global growth by a magnitude much larger than what has been priced into equity markets, even if they are ultimately reduced after negotiations.

Goldman Sachs equity trading specialist Rich Privorotsky sees any relief rally as short-lived. “Aggressive tariffs are simply not good.”

For the JPMorgan Market Intelligence desk led by Andrew Tyler, most investors are operating under the assumption that a ‘Trump Put’ exists in the 5,000–5,300 range for the S&P 500 and that tariffs are temporary.

In addition, there is also a consensus view that the Fed will step in to establish the ‘Fed Put’ no later than the June meeting.

That’s where the market will be disappointed.

Trump has significantly more tolerance for stock market pullbacks, while the Fed is unlikely to intervene until unemployment get closer to 5% vs 4.2% currently, assuming CPI stays at current levels of 2.8%, Tyler says. “Given the current expectations for tariffs to create a spike to inflation, it puts the Fed in a difficult place with monetary policy looked at having limited ability to cure stagflation,” his team writes.

The Mag7 collapsed more than 6% as a whole, wiping out $1 trillion in market cap.

2. A double whammy for European investors in US stocks as the USD is also tanking.

That’s -7.15% year-to-date.

3. Nowhere to hide?

European utilities had a +3% day and are up 14% for the year. Why? No tariffs.

4. Given widespread stock ownership in the U.S., American consumers will feel the wealth effect from a crashing stock market.

5. It takes decades to establish icons in the watch industry.

For example, Omega's speedmaster, Rolex's submariner, Jaeger LeCoultre's Reverso and Cartier's Santos are 68, 72, 94 and 121 years old.

Iconic lines in the watches sector have performed particularly strongly in recent years, accounting for an ever increasing share of sales – and even more so of profits – of some of the main brands.

For example, the Royal Oak accounted for ~87% of Audemars Piguet's sales.

Also, the largest brands are gaining further market share and is a development common to nearly all sub segments of the luxury goods sector.

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