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1. A lack of confidence among big asset managers limits any potential rally.

While retail traders are still buying the dip, having snapped up some $120 billion in stock ETFs this year, professionals have been heading in the other direction, according to data from Goldman Sachs.

They’ve sold about $30 billion in equity ETFs in 2025.

Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 in a broad range for now. “Offsetting forces mean we’re likely in a trading range of 5,000-5,500 for the S&P 500,” the strategists write as the US index trades near the middle of this range.

“The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and further concessions lessen the near-term probability of a recession, but uncertainty remains high.”

2. For now, the AI trade is back.

After the close, the largest climbers were AI/semiconductor-related firms, Lam Research, and ServiceNow. Let’s track what they said about AI demand in the year 2025.

ServiceNow beat estimates and climbed 9%, the biggest gainer in large and mid-cap firms. The software as a service firm raised an adjusted $4.04/share on revenue of $3.09 billion, both beating estimates. Subscription revenue climbed 19% YoY.

Lam Research was up nearly 5% after hours, as the semiconductor and circuit equipment maker beat estimates for its third quarter and expects its final quarter of its fiscal year to see revenue of $5B.

Vertiv, the data center builder, raised full-year guidance and signaled confidence in managing new tariffs under President Trump’s trade policy. It was up 10%.

3. Visitors go where they feel welcome.

4. Lots of concerns about China "dumping" debt in a trade war.

However, China only owns 2.9% of US debt. This is down from >14%.

5. US corporate confidence is declining.

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