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1. How did the earnings season go overall?

David Kostin, chief strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote to his followers today that with 2Q 2025 earnings nearly wrapped, the market did pretty well rebounding from spring's tariff shock.

Companies on the S&P 500 posted a 12% earnings per share gain from last year. Turns out, slashing estimates in spring set the bar so low, 69% of companies pole-vaulted over it.

“58% of firms raised full-year guidance, double the rate from 1Q. But don’t get too comfy: growth is still expected to slow from 11% in 2Q to 7% in 2H.”

2. The “GenAI Divide”.

An MIT report, (The GenAI Divide: State of AI in Business 2025), sent a chill through sentiment, noting that many businesses still aren’t seeing tangible returns from AI projects.

That’s the type of assertion that makes Wall Street uneasy, since lofty valuations depend on the assumption of rapid adoption and profits.

"The outcomes are so starkly divided across both buyers (enterprises, mid-market, SMBs) and builders (startups, vendors, consultancies) that we call it the GenAI Divide" and note that

"Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L impact."

“The divide is defined by high adoption but low transformation.”

“Sometimes, the vision can be absolutely right. But the time horizon required by realize the vision can be much longer than expected,” says Goldman’s Philip Sun.

3. The euro’s path to $1.20 looks like a question of when rather than if. The only remaining debate is the speed limit.

That hinges on the September Federal Reserve meeting. A dovish cut could sink the dollar and fast-track the euro; a hawkish one would slow the march but not derail it.

4. Household electricity prices.

5. Data center versus office construction.

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