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1. “The weaker dollar is a substantial, underappreciated tailwind for US multinational companies' earnings.”

Multinational companies sell their goods abroad and collect revenue in foreign currency. During periods of dollar weakness, these companies earn a premium when exchanging revenues earned in foreign currencies into USD. The S&P 500 earns approximately 40% of revenue abroad while the Russell 2000 earns ~22% abroad.

Source: Morgan Stanley

2. US copper prices hit record highs on Trump tariff threat.

U.S. prices of the red metal were boosted by bets on tighter domestic supplies, after Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports.

Such a move stands to greatly benefit domestic copper producers, the most prominent being Freeport-McMoran. Trump said the move was aimed at shoring up domestic copper production and reducing the U.S.’ reliance on imports of the red metal.

Copper has come increasingly into focus over its role in electricity transmission and electric vehicles, both of which are crucial to the green energy transition. Copper prices outside the U.S., however, slid on concerns over weaker U.S. import demand.

Last but not least, copper tariffs are “extremely inflationary,” according to UBS O’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha CIO Bernie Ahkong.

3. Google’s unloved stock makes it a big-tech bargain.

Regulators want to split Alphabet up, AI search competitors are going after its core business and Tesla is trying to outrace it in robotaxis. Those sound like big threats for the Google parent, but none of them is big enough to sink the company.

It trades at a historically cheap valuation relative to big-tech peers.

Source: WSJ

4. S&P 500 earnings per share, P/E and return scenarios from Goldman.

5. Office buildings are vacant, mortgages are defaulting, cities are broke.

Even with return to office pushes, hybrid work is the new baseline that means less rent, more vacancies, & declining building income. And just when office buildings were bleeding cash, the Fed raised interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years. Higher rates killed refinancing and crushed building valuations.

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