1. ASML announces large capacity increase.

The company now expects 2026 revenue of 43-45 billion euros, implying 35%-40% annual growth, and gross margin of 54%-56%.
ASML raises EUV production capacity targets to 85 tools in 2027 and 110 tools in 2028, citing stronger customer demand and improving visibility.
Analysts say 2028 EUV capacity of 110 systems could support about $300 billion in industry wafer fab equipment spending.
Below: ASML could not make new highs as the stock is not cheap at a valuation of 60 P/E.

2. China’s gain = Germany’s pain.

China exported more than 1 million automobiles in a single month for the first time, as electric vehicle sales surged. That is almost double its monthly car-export level at the start of last year, with much of the increase absorbed by Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.
One potential remedy is the exchange rate, a critical point of contention in Europe. German opposition leader Friedrich Merz raised the issue during a visit to Beijing in February and reiterated this week that a deeply undervalued yuan distorts the playing field. He argued that yuan appreciation would help China avoid more draconian trade retaliation.
"We are now trying to steer the dialogue ‌with ⁠China toward a solution ... an attempt to persuade China to allow its own ⁠currency to float freely, including in the context of ⁠competition in the capital markets," Merz said ⁠on Monday.
Europe may find itself — unusually these days — on the same page as U.S. President Donald Trump.

3. Which side of the AI divide are you on?

Bank of America strategists neatly captured the increasing polarization between the AI camps in a chart last week that showed a "generational transfer" of free cash flows from hyperscalers to chip companies. The vast sums hyperscalers are spending on AI infrastructure and capex are essentially flowing to semiconductor companies, which will enjoy an increasing share of future AI profits.
They note that the “Magnificent Seven” hyperscalers have spent $234 billion in capex this year but their stocks have barely risen, as investors anticipate that these firms' free cash flow will turn negative for the first time in at least two decades.
Ultimately, investors will have to come to terms with the fact that the AI buildout might be a zero-sum game, meaning something has to give. Either hyperscalers' free cash flow suddenly bounces back or chipmakers' growth slows sharply.

4. ESS is an important piece of the puzzle in the energy transition.

The global Energy Storage System (ESS) opportunity is estimated at 5TWh by 2030 vs. 1TWh now (46% CAGR) on improving economics and energy security needs.

Engie, RWE and EDPR are the most exposed names to the theme.

Below: ESS installations are growing quickly, to firm AI power demand and balance grids.

5. Deutsche Bank starts D'Ieteren at “Buy”.

Deutsche Bank initiates coverage of D'Ieteren with a "buy" rating, saying the Belgian investment firm offers exposure to a portfolio of high-quality automotive repair and services business.
The broker is particularly bullish on Belron, the vehicle glass repair and replacement company behind Carglass and Safelite, arguing it is worth D'Ieteren's entire current equity value on its own.
"Belron has a 15Y CAGR of +6% in revenue and +13% in operating profit, with margins of 23% that we expect to rise to >25%," DB says
Combined with D'Ieteren's other businesses, which DB says offer "structural growth, recurring demand, scale advantages and strong cash generation", the broker sets a price target of 230 euros, implying about 35.6% upside.
Out of 14 analysts that cover D'Ieteren, all 14 rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy".

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