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1. U.S. consumer confidence declined again in September as Americans' pessimism over inflation and the weakening job market continued to grow.

That's a bigger drop than analysts were expecting and the lowest reading since April.

This figure points to a gradual softening in labor market conditions and suggests that the rise in the unemployment rate is not done yet. Many companies are locked in a "no hire, no fire" position, fearful of expanding payrolls until the effects of Trump's tariffs are more clear.

The hope on Wall Street is that the job market will continue to slow just enough to convince the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates , but not by so much that it brings a recession.

Below: Both expectations (blue left scale) and current conditions (orange right scale) keep going lower.

2. Gold’s recent records are based on structural shifts.

Gold prices have surged more than 45% this year, breaking above $3,800/oz on a myriad of tailwinds. The advance has been fueled by sustained central-bank buying, turbulent White House policy, a dovish turn from the Federal Reserve and the strongest ETF inflows since 2022, securing bullion’s third straight quarterly advance. De-dollarization has also accelerated the move higher. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the dollar’s share of central bank reserves has fallen to 44% from nearly 60%, when including gold as a portion of central bank reserves.

Meanwhile, gold holdings have risen to 24% of total central bank reserves as of August from just 15% a decade ago.

3. European banks’ performance looks far from stretched.

It’s the best performing sector in the region this year, advancing 47%, but still 40% below its all-time high. Bank profits have soared this year thanks to stronger fee and trading income and reduced costs, defying expectations among some that falling interest rates would hit earnings. Capital buffers have remained robust, allowing them to increase share buybacks and dividends.

And the set-up for banks looks as positive as ever.

The swap market is ruling out any further rate cuts, just as the European economy is expected to recover strongly, boosted by massive fiscal stimulus in Germany and infrastructure spending from the European Union. That’s a good environment for lenders to keep thriving, and analysts are taking note, raising their estimates.

“Shareholders’ returns are expected to hover between 8%-11% — roughly half from dividends, half in share appreciation — in coming years.”

4. Debt Is fueling the AI boom.

The ambitions of companies such as OpenAI are poised to take leverage in the industry to a whole new level.

The company signed a $300 billion, five-year contract this month under which Oracle is to set up AI computing infrastructure and lease it to OpenAI. Oracle has to spend on that infrastructure before it gets paid in full by OpenAI—which means a lot of borrowing.

Analysts estimated that Oracle would have to borrow $25 billion per year over the next four years.

Source: WSJ

5. The world's biggest tourism spenders?

Tourists from China spend the most money on overseas travel, according to recent data from the UN’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). In the past year, Chinese travelers spent approximately $250 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. travelers spent close to $180 billion, coming in second place. Perhaps more surprisingly, Russia also ranks among the top 10 countries for tourism expenditure, with tourists spending just under $40 billion in 2024.

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